**Note**: This is the US dollar (USD) version of the Keeyu financial model. All figures have been converted from AUD at 0.70 USD per AUD (April 2026 FX). The underlying operating model is identical to the AUD version.

---

# Keeyu Financial Model Build — LTM Actuals + NTM to US$3.5M ARR
**Source basis**: dataroom (`keeyu-dataroom-bb.md`), monthly management accounts Nov '25–Mar '26, internal ARR build (Jevon's tracker May '25–Jun '26), USA GTM deck
**Date**: 2026-04-15
**Audience for the resulting model**: Investor follow-up to dataroom review

---

## 0. How to read this document

This document is the **assumption layer and connective logic** behind the dataroom's headline numbers. Every figure used in the build is either (a) sourced from Xero / management accounts (LTM actuals), (b) sourced from the dataroom (top-down targets), or (c) explicitly derived here as a working assumption with a stated rationale.

Adam: when you build the spreadsheet, every assumption in this doc should become its own cell on an **Assumptions** tab so the model is fully driveable by changing inputs. Dollar figures are USD unless flagged otherwise. **This document is denominated in USD natively** — all figures have been converted from the underlying AUD operating model at 0.70 USD per AUD (April 2026 FX). The US and AU revenue streams in the underlying model are in their native currencies; the AU figures have been converted to USD for this document.

Recommended tab structure for the spreadsheet:
1. **Assumptions** — every driver below as a named cell
2. **LTM Actuals** — monthly P&L May '25–Apr '26
3. **Headcount** — hire-by-hire schedule with fully-loaded cost
4. **Sales Capacity** — SDR/AE funnel mechanics by month
5. **Customer Build** — new logos by channel + month, ARR build
6. **Expansion Waterfall** — grandfathered → rack-rate roll for existing 30
7. **Revenue Recognition** — contracted ARR vs billed revenue (with lag)
8. **NTM P&L** — full P&L May '26–Apr '27
9. **Cash Flow** — monthly with R&D rebates
10. **Summary** — one-page exec view

---

## 1. LTM Actuals (May '25 → Apr '26)

### 1.1 Monthly ARR trajectory (contracted)

Source: management accounts ARR chart + Jevon's customer-level monthly ARR tracker.

| Month | Contracted ARR | Net New ARR | # Customers | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | US$68,040 | — | 8 | Baseline at start of LTM |
| Jun '25 | US$84,840 | +US$16,800 | 9 | Decjuba added at US$17K |
| Jul '25 | US$84,840 | +US$0 | 10 | Flat |
| Aug '25 | US$109,620 | +US$24,780 | 14 | New cohort onboarded |
| Sep '25 | US$115,080 | +US$5,460 | 15 | A Man & His Cave |
| Oct '25 | US$144,480 | +US$29,400 | 18 | Bronze Snake, Muscle Republic, Kivari |
| Nov '25 | US$159,180 | +US$14,700 | 19 | Pharmacy Online |
| Dec '25 | US$159,180 | US$0 | 19 | Holiday lull |
| Jan '26 | US$159,600 | +US$420 | 23 | Alternative Brewing/Desky AU at intro pricing |
| Feb '26 | US$267,414 | +US$107,814 | 28 | Desky USA, IM8 USA, Life Interiors, Mister Zimi, Okanui — first US wins |
| Mar '26 | US$424,284 | +US$156,870 | 34 | Boardriders US$43.3K, The Oodie US$63K, Puma US$21.4K, Elliatt US$12K, Petzyo |
| Apr '26 (est.) | US$571,900 | +US$147,616 | ~37 | Pipeline conversion in close stage |

**Assumption for Adam**: contracted ARR figures above are **month-end snapshots**. For monthly recognised revenue see §1.3.

### 1.2 Customer-level ARR tracker (May '25–Jun '26)

Full customer-by-customer monthly ARR build (30 customers, May '25 → Jun '26 actual+forecast) is in Jevon's source spreadsheet. Key shape:

- **Original 18 (grandfathered cohort)**: signed at intro pricing May–Nov '25. Mostly flat ARR through 2025, with **upsell events** beginning Jan–Mar '26 as the first tier upgrades fired (e.g. Budgy Smuggler US$2.5K → US$8K in Feb '26; EHP Labs US$13K → US$24.8K in Feb '26; Helly Hansen US$2.5K → US$13K → US$24.8K Jan-Mar '26).
- **11 new rack-rate customers**: signed Dec '25 → Mar '26 at full pricing. ACV range US$10K–US$63K, blended US$23,642.
- **Total LTM end-state (Apr '26)**: US$572K contracted ARR across 30 customers.

### 1.3 Monthly P&L — actuals (Nov '25 → Mar '26 detailed; May '25–Oct '25 see Xero)

Revenue line is **recognised (billed) revenue** — materially below contracted ARR/12 due to onboarding lag (typically signed M0, billed from M+1 or M+2).

| Line | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Revenue (recognised)** | 12,492 | 13,742 | 13,742 | 17,259 | 18,658 |
| **COGS** | 9,784 | 9,502 | 11,098 | 12,832 | 15,799 |
| Cloud infra (Pump/AWS, DigitalOcean) | 9,090 | 9,489 | 10,642 | 10,779 | 10,678 |
| Merchant fees | 19 | 33 | 456 | 951 | ~270 |
| Model training (Claude.ai, Anthropic API) | 675 | -20 | 0 | 1,102 | 4,850 |
| **Gross Profit** | 2,708 | 4,240 | 2,644 | 4,428 | 2,859 |
| **GM %** | 21.7% | 30.9% | 19.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% |
| **Opex — Support/CS** | 10,500 | 8,400 | 8,400 | ~8,400 | ~8,400 |
| **Opex — GTM** | 39,440 | 50,016 | 42,486 | 36,852 | 49,161 |
|   GTM People (sal+super) | 26,165 | 29,534 | 31,554 | 28,325 | 28,700 |
|   GTM Software (subs) | 6,898 | 7,007 | 10,257 | 8,527 | 9,476 |
|   GTM Program (paid media, content) | 6,377 | 13,475 | 675 | 0 | 1,315 |
|   GTM Contractors | — | — | 6,353 | — | 9,695 |
| **Opex — P&E (R&D)** | 128,384 | 113,221 | 93,402 | 87,632 | 172,833 |
|   P&E People (sal+super) | 64,059 | 63,821 | 63,821 | 63,821 | 63,821 |
|   R&D Contractors | 64,325 | 49,400 | 29,581 | 23,100 | 48,700 |
|   P&E Software | — | — | — | — | 2,384 |
| **Opex — G&A** | 14,594 | 22,141 | 17,486 | 16,625 | 17,036 |
|   Rent | 3,921 | 11,232 | 4,580 | 4,580 | 4,580 |
|   Accounting/CFO | 4,050 | 4,050 | 4,050 | 4,050 | 2,750 |
|   Legal | 850 | 850 | 850 | 1,699 | 892 |
|   Co-wide software | 3,124 | 4,112 | 4,280 | 4,000 | 7,587 |
|   Insurance, travel, general, equipment | ~2,649 | ~1,897 | ~3,726 | ~2,296 | ~1,227 |
| **Total Opex** | 192,918 | 193,778 | 161,774 | 149,509 | 247,430 |
| **EBITDA** | (190,210) | (189,538) | (159,130) | (145,081) | (244,571) |
| **Net Income** | (187,052) | (185,666) | (155,077) | (142,173) | (200,578) |

> **Adam — for May '25–Oct '25 monthly P&L**: pull line-item detail from Xero. The chart of accounts above is the canonical structure (it matches the Quick Ratio CFO management account format). The **shape** of the early-LTM months is materially the same as Nov–Dec (lower revenue, similar P&E people cost ~US$42K/mo, lower R&D contractor spend, GTM ~US$21–40K/mo). For modelling purposes if you want a quick run-rate baseline: **avg LTM monthly opex Nov '25–Mar '26 = US$132,357/mo** ($945,409 / 5).

### 1.4 LTM Cash Trajectory

| Month | Opening Cash | Net Burn | R&D Rebate | Closing Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '25 | US$932,968 | (US$138,585) | — | US$794,383 |
| Dec '25 | US$932,968 (revised post-recon) | (US$118,854) | — | US$814,113 |
| Jan '26 | US$814,113 | (US$119,789) | — | US$694,366 |
| Feb '26 | US$694,121 | (US$76,213) | — | US$617,837 |
| Mar '26 | US$617,837 | (US$140,105) | — | US$477,732 |
| Apr '26 (forecast) | US$477,732 | (~US$133,000) | +US$191,100 | US$535,832 |

R&D advance of **US$191K approved, expected April**. Second tranche of **US$191K forecast for Sep '26** (per Feb board report). A larger consolidated R&D claim is expected to land **M5 (Sep '26): US$350K** and **M11 (Mar '27): US$490K** per the dataroom forecast — these are rebate cycle peaks.

### 1.5 Headcount baseline (current, as of Apr '26)

Inferred from monthly P&L payroll lines and Mar '26 board commentary. **Adam — confirm against payroll roster.**

| Function | Headcount | Monthly cost (incl super) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founders (Jevon CEO, Tracy CPO, Tahir CTO) | 3 | ~US$31,500/mo (combined) | Rough est; founders on reduced cash comp |
| Product & Engineering (perm) | 4–5 | US$44,675/mo total | Mar '26 P&L line: $56,983 sal + $6,838 super |
| GTM (perm — incl 1 SDR Louise) | 3 | US$20,090/mo total | Mar '26 P&L line: $25,625 sal + $3,075 super |
| Customer Success/Support | 1 | US$5,880/mo | Single hire flagged in Feb board report |
| **Permanent total** | **~12** | **~US$102,200/mo** | US$1.23M annualised perm payroll |
| R&D Contractors (IDP Solutions, Eritheia Labs, Muhammad Waleed, Ali Rehman Khan) | 4 | US$16K–US$34K/mo (variable) | Avg LTM ~US$22K/mo |
| GTM Contractors (Connor Johnston, Marketect Pro) | 1–2 | US$2K–US$7K/mo | Variable |

**Loaded cost multipliers to apply**:
- AU permanent: **1.25x base** (super 11.5% + payroll tax ~5.45% NSW + workers comp + tools/laptop)
- US permanent: **1.30x base** (employer FICA 7.65% + benefits ~10–15% + payroll tax + tools)
- Contractors (offshore IN/PK/AU): **1.0x** (gross invoice; no super/tax obligation)

---

## 2. NTM Build (May '26 → Apr '27) — Path to US$3.5M ARR

### 2.1 Headline targets (from dataroom)

| Milestone | Month | ARR target | Customer count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting ARR | May '26 (M0) | US$424K (Mar '26 contracted) — modelled US$572K opening assuming Apr '26 closes | 30 |
| M3 | Aug '26 | US$0.7M | ~50 |
| M6 | Nov '26 | US$1.33M | ~75 |
| M9 | Feb '27 | US$2.24M | ~110 |
| M12 | Apr '27 | US$3.5M | ~140 |

**Net new ARR required over NTM**: **US$3.08M** (from US$424K → US$3.5M; dataroom builds in US$245K buffer to US$3.33M new ARR).

**Channel mix of new ARR** (per dataroom):
- Direct (SDR/AE outbound): **43%** = US$1.32M new ARR
- Partnerships (agency/co-sell): **33%** = US$1.02M
- Inbound (organic, content, brand): **24%** = US$0.74M

**Expansion ARR (within existing 30)**: from §2.6 — modelled as ramp from grandfathered rates to rack rate, completing by Jan '27 (best case per Jevon). Adds ~US$140K of ARR not from new logos.

### 2.2 Sales Capacity Model — Direct channel (SDR/AE outbound)

This is the **mechanical engine** that translates headcount into ARR.

#### 2.2.1 SDR funnel assumptions

| Stage | Rate | Source/rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Dials per SDR per day | **200** | Jevon's gut + autodialer-supported pace; Outreach.io/Salesloft benchmark cite 150–250 with parallel dialers. **Aggressive but achievable** with tooling already in stack (Freckle, Sure Connect, Instantly). |
| Working days per month | **20** | Standard; excludes leave |
| Total dials/SDR/month | **4,000** | 200 × 20 |
| Connect rate (live conversation) | **5%** | Cold-call SaaS ANZ benchmark 4–7%; B2B e-commerce decision-maker reachability lower than horizontal SaaS |
| Connects/SDR/month | **200** | 4,000 × 5% |
| Meeting-booked rate (per connect) | **15%** | Industry: 10–20% for warm scripts on outbound; Keeyu's value prop (CX cost reduction) is qualified pain |
| Meetings booked/SDR/month | **30** | 200 × 15% |
| Show rate (booked → held disco) | **65%** | Standard; SaaS no-show rate 30–40% |
| Discos held/SDR/month | **~20** | 30 × 65% |

> **Adam — sensitivity to model**: a 20% miss on connect rate (4% vs 5%) drops monthly discos from 20 to 16. A 20% miss on dials (160/day vs 200) drops monthly discos from 20 to 16 also. These are the two highest-leverage drivers — flag them as top assumptions on the Assumptions tab.

#### 2.2.2 AE funnel assumptions

| Stage | Rate | Source/rationale |
|---|---|---|
| AE capacity (discos held/month) | 20 | Matches one SDR's output → **1 SDR : 1 AE pod ratio** |
| Disco → Demo conversion | **60%** | Industry 50–70%; Keeyu's discovery is structured (pain points doc, mutual action plan) so trending high end |
| Demos held/AE/month | **12** | 20 × 60% |
| Demo → Won (close) conversion | **30%** | Industry 20–40% for mid-market SaaS; Keeyu's existing pipeline shows 4 of 10 Won from Demo+Close stage in Mar '26 board report |
| Wins/AE pod/month | **~3.6** | 12 × 30% |
| Sales cycle (disco → signed) | **30–45 days** (use 38d midpoint) | Per Jevon. Validates against deal-flow folder evidence: Puma 5-Feb disco → close call 25-Feb (20d), The Oodie 9-Feb disco → contract 27-Feb (18d), Boardriders 17-Feb intro → 26-Mar contract (37d) |
| Average ACV (new logo) | **US$24,500** | Recent 11-customer cohort blended US$23,642; dataroom builds at US$24K-US$40K range with US deals trending higher |

**Direct channel monthly contribution per AE pod (1 SDR + 1 AE)**:
- Steady-state: 3.6 wins × US$24K = **US$88,200 new ARR / pod / month**
- Ramp: AE/SDR new hires take **2 months to ramp** (M+1 prospecting only, M+2 first deals close). Apply 0%, 33%, 67%, 100% productivity in months 1, 2, 3, 4+.

#### 2.2.3 Direct channel headcount plan

To deliver US$1.32M Direct ARR over 12 months:
- Required pod-months at full productivity = US$1,324,400 / US$88,200 = **15 pod-months equivalent**
- With ramp curve, plan **3 pods active at full productivity by M3**, scaling to **4 pods by M6**.

| Hire timing | Role | Region | Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| M1 (May '26) | US AE #1 | US | Pod 1 lead (US) |
| M1 | US SDR #1 | US | Supports US AE |
| M1 | AU SDR #2 | AU | Supports existing AU AE/founder selling |
| M2 (Jun '26) | US AE #2 | US | Pod 2 |
| M2 | US SDR #2 | US | Supports US AE #2 |
| M5 (Sep '26) | US AE #3 | US | Pod 3 |
| M5 | US SDR #3 | US | Supports US AE #3 |
| M8 (Dec '26) | AU AE #2 | AU | Backfill AU coverage |
| M8 | AU SDR #3 | AU | Supports AU AE #2 |

### 2.3 Partnerships channel (33% / US$1.02M new ARR)

Partnership programme is in early build (per memory: AU agency partner programme launching, partner Slack, PAS scoring of 3 agency buckets). **Ramp curve**: assume partnerships contribute US$0 in M1–M2 (relationship build), then ramp linearly to ~US$112K/month by M9 and hold.

**Capacity assumptions**:
- US Partnerships Manager hired **M1 (May '26)**, fully ramped by M3
- AU partnerships managed by founder until M6
- Each agency partner referral generates **2–3 deals per quarter at US$24K ACV**
- Target: **20 active referring agencies by M12** (US + AU)
- Implied: 20 partners × 2.5 deals/qtr × US$24K = US$1.23M annualised — gives US$1.02M target with buffer for ramp

### 2.4 Inbound channel (24% / US$0.74M new ARR)

Inbound = organic search, content, brand-led, podcast, referral.

**Capacity assumptions**:
- Inbound MQL → SQL conversion: 30%
- SQL → Won: 25%
- Required wins: US$0.74M / US$24K = **30 wins over 12 months = ~2.5/month avg**
- Required SQLs: 30 / 25% = **120 SQLs over 12 months = 10/month**
- Required MQLs: 120 / 30% = **400 MQLs over 12 months = ~33/month**

**Content/brand investment to drive this**:
- **US Marketing Manager hired M2** (drives US-relevant content, paid acquisition, brand)
- **AU Content/SEO contractor maintained** (currently Connor Johnston / Neon Deer Data Labs)
- **Paid program spend ramp**: US$4K (M1) → US$14K/month by M6 → US$21K/month by M12. Total NTM paid spend: ~US$168K
- Implied **inbound CAC**: US$168K / 30 wins = US$5,600 per win, against US$24K ACV — well within healthy SaaS LTV:CAC

### 2.5 Customer ramp + billing lag

Critical mechanic: **contract signed in M0 → first invoice raised in M+2** (45-day onboarding/integration period before billing commences). Monthly billing in advance, no annual prepay, no setup fee.

**Implication for revenue recognition**:
- A deal signed in May '26 (M1) generates **recognised revenue from Jul '26 (M3)** onward
- Therefore **billed revenue lags contracted ARR by ~2 months**

**Worked example**:
- M1 wins: 0 (no AEs yet ramped; existing pipeline conversions only)
- M2 wins: ~3 logos × US$24K = US$74K contracted ARR; first billed M4 → adds US$6.1K MRR from Jul
- M3 wins: ~7 (2 pods at 33%/67% ramp); US$172K contracted; billed M5 → US$14.3K MRR from Aug
- M6 wins: ~12 (3 pods full prod + 1 ramping); US$294K contracted; billed M8 → US$24K MRR
- ...etc.

### 2.6 Expansion waterfall — existing 30 customers

The original 18 grandfathered customers are at **US$146K contracted (Jan '26)** vs **US$342K rack rate** = **US$195K of unrealised expansion**.

**Per Jevon (Apr '26)**: best-case full migration to rack rate is **complete by Jan '27 (M9)**. Migration is **slower than dataroom assumed** — driven by retention sensitivity and the need to deliver tier-upgrade value before pricing change.

**Modelled monthly expansion ARR uplift** (additive to new logos):
| Month | Cumulative expansion captured | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| May '26 (M1) | US$0 | Apr '26 ARR baseline already includes ~US$52K of expansion captured Jan-Apr '26 |
| Jun '26 (M2) | US$7K | First scheduled rack-rate conversions |
| Sep '26 (M5) | US$42K | Steady migration |
| Dec '26 (M8) | US$98K | Acceleration |
| Jan '27 (M9) | US$140K | **Full grandfathered cohort migrated to rack rate** |
| Apr '27 (M12) | US$140K | Plus tier upgrades on the 11 rack-rate customers — ~US$21K more |

**Total expansion contribution to US$3.5M target**: ~**US$161K**, which is modest relative to US$3.08M from new logos. This is conservative — if migration accelerates, upside.

**No tier-upgrade journey on new wins**: per Jevon, all new sign-ups go straight onto **Automate** tier. This means **higher initial ACV** (US$24K avg) but **less expansion runway** within the new cohort.

### 2.7 Churn assumption (revised — per Jevon sign-off Apr '26)

**0% churn through M7 (Nov '26)**. From **M8 (Dec '26) onward: 5% annual churn rate** = ~0.42% monthly applied to the total contracted ARR base.

This reflects: (a) LTM zero churn maintained through early NTM scale-up, (b) realistic expectation that at 80+ customers some will not renew, and (c) BB-defensible — proactively modelling churn rather than claiming zero forever.

**Monthly churn impact (M8–M12)**:

| Month | Starting ARR | Monthly churn (0.42%) | Churn US$ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M8 Dec '26 | ~US$2,082K | -US$8,680 | |
| M9 Jan '27 | ~US$2,418K | -US$10,080 | |
| M10 Feb '27 | ~US$2,766K | -US$11,550 | |
| M11 Mar '27 | ~US$3,137K | -US$13,090 | |
| M12 Apr '27 | ~US$3,540K | -US$14,770 | |
| **Total M8–M12** | | | **-US$58,170** |

> **Adam**: model churn as a cell on the Assumptions tab. Apply monthly (5%/12 = 0.417%) against total contracted ARR from M8 onward. This reduces ending ARR by ~US$58K.

### 2.8 NRR

Existing dataroom: **108% NRR** (current). Modelled NRR in NTM = **125%** (driven by grandfathered → rack rate roll). Reverts to ~115% steady-state post-Jan '27.

---

## 3. Headcount Schedule (NTM hire-by-hire)

### 3.1 Salary bands (researched; native market rates; **fully-loaded**)

US roles: USD at native US market rates (levels.fyi / Pave 2025 SaaS Series A medians). AU roles: AUD bands converted to USD at 0.70 FX.

| Role | Region | Base salary | Loaded multiplier | **Fully-loaded annual** | **Monthly** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US AE | US | US$90,000 base + US$90,000 variable → US$180K OTE | 1.30x on base, plus full variable | **US$207,000** | US$17,250 |
| US SDR | US | US$80,000 base + US$30K variable → US$110K OTE | 1.30x | **US$130,000** | US$10,833 |
| AU AE | AU | US$77,000 base + US$46K variable → US$123K OTE | 1.05x (super on base + tools) | **US$130,000** | US$10,833 |
| AU SDR | AU | US$49,000 base + US$18K variable | 1.25x | **US$78,750** | US$6,562 |
| US Partnerships Manager | US | US$160,000 base + US$60K bonus | 1.30x | **US$240,000** | US$20,000 |
| US Marketing Manager | US | US$150,000 base | 1.30x | **US$195,000** | US$16,250 |
| AI Engineer #1 | AU/Remote | US$126,000 base | 1.25x | **US$157,500** | US$13,125 |
| AI Engineer #2 | AU/Remote | US$119,000 base | 1.25x | **US$148,750** | US$12,396 |
| Customer Success Manager #1 | AU | US$77,000 base | 1.25x | **US$96,250** | US$8,021 |
| Customer Success Manager #2 (US) | US | US$120,000 base | 1.30x | **US$156,000** | US$13,000 |
| Implementation Engineer | AU | US$91,000 base | 1.25x | **US$113,750** | US$9,479 |

### 3.1.1 US AE compensation — market research + options for Jevon sign-off

**Per Jevon Apr '26**: "US$300K OTE is no way. That's double what the founders earn. Do more market research." Below are the findings.

**2025–2026 US AE compensation benchmarks** (mid-market B2B SaaS, ACV US$30K–60K range):

| Source | Base (US$) | OTE (US$) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bridge Group 2024 Benchmarks | US$75–95K | US$140–200K | Mid-market segment; 50/50 base:variable split |
| RepVue (2026 national median) | US$100K | US$195K | Broad SaaS AE median |
| Everstage SaaS Compensation | US$75–90K | US$140–180K | Series A / early-stage focus |
| Salary.com (SF/NY) | US$100K | US$200–250K | Premium markets only |
| Tier-2 markets (Austin, Denver, remote) | US$70–85K | US$140–170K | Lower COL |

**Key finding**: US$300K OTE is **top-of-market for late-stage Series C+ companies**, not early-stage Series A. For a Series A company selling ~US$24K ACV deals, the realistic range is **US$140K–US$200K OTE**.

**Three options for Jevon**:

| Option | Base | Variable | OTE | Fully loaded | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **A — Conservative** | US$80K | US$80K | US$160K | US$184K | US$15,333 |
| **B — Mid-market** | US$90K | US$90K | US$180K | US$207K | US$17,250 |
| **C — Competitive (SF/NY)** | US$100K | US$100K | US$200K | US$230K | US$19,167 |

Loaded = base × 1.30 (employer FICA, benefits, payroll tax) + full variable.

**Recommendation**: **Option B (US$126K OTE / US$180K OTE)** — mid-market for Series A, competitive enough to attract strong AEs without the SF premium. Remote-first or Tier-2 city hires.

**Quota:OTE ratio**: at Option B, quota US$0.7M / OTE US$126K = **5.6:1** (industry median 4.2:1 per Bridge Group). At industry-standard 4.2:1 ratio, quota would be US$529K (= 18 deals × US$29K ACV or 21 deals × US$25K ACV). **At 4 wins/mo × 12 × US$24K = US$1.18M closed, the AE is at 222% quota — variable comp maxes out.** Consider quota of US$0.84M with 50/50 split and 1.5x accelerator above 100%.

> **Jevon — pick A, B, or C**. This decision affects cumulative NTM payroll by ~US$84K (3 US AEs × 12 months × ~US$2K/mo delta between options). No wrong answer at these ranges.

### 3.2 Hire schedule (revised — 2 SDRs per AE, first start M3 Jul '26)

Per Jevon Apr '26: **no hires start before M3.** Each AE pod = 1 AE + 2 SDRs. AU SDR #2 supports Louise/Jevon; US Pods each get 2 dedicated SDRs; AU Pod 2 gets 2 dedicated SDRs.

| Month | Hire | Region | Annual loaded cost | Cumulative monthly payroll add |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **M3 Jul '26** | US AE #1 | US | US$144,900 | +US$12,075 |
| M3 | US SDR #1a (Pod 1) | US | US$91,000 | +US$7,583 |
| M3 | US SDR #1b (Pod 1) | US | US$91,000 | +US$7,583 |
| M3 | AU SDR #2 (supports Louise/Jevon) | AU | US$78,750 | +US$6,562 |
| M3 | US Partnerships Manager | US | US$168,000 | +US$14,000 |
| **M3 monthly add: US$47,804** | | | **US$573,650/yr** | |
| **M4 Aug '26** | US Marketing Manager | US | US$136,500 | +US$11,375 |
| M4 | AI Engineer #1 | AU | US$157,500 | +US$13,125 |
| **M4 monthly add: US$24,500** | | | **US$294,000/yr** | |
| **M6 Oct '26** | US AE #2 (Pod 2) | US | US$144,900 | +US$12,075 |
| M6 | US SDR #2a (Pod 2) | US | US$91,000 | +US$7,583 |
| M6 | US SDR #2b (Pod 2) | US | US$91,000 | +US$7,583 |
| M6 | Customer Success Manager #1 | AU | US$96,250 | +US$8,021 |
| **M6 monthly add: US$35,262** | | | US$423,150/yr | |
| **M7 Nov '26** | Implementation Engineer | AU | US$113,750 | +US$9,479 |
| **M7 monthly add: US$9,479** | | | US$113,750/yr | |
| **M9 Jan '27** | AI Engineer #2 | AU | US$148,750 | +US$12,396 |
| **M9 monthly add: US$12,396** | | | US$148,750/yr | |
| **M10 Feb '27** | AU AE #2 (AU Pod 2) | AU | US$129,500 | +US$10,792 |
| M10 | AU SDR #3a (AU Pod 2) | AU | US$78,750 | +US$6,562 |
| M10 | AU SDR #3b (AU Pod 2) | AU | US$78,750 | +US$6,562 |
| **M10 monthly add: US$23,917** | | | US$287,000/yr | |
| **M12 Apr '27** | Customer Success Manager #2 | US | US$109,200 | +US$9,100 |
| **M12 monthly add: US$9,100** | | | US$109,200/yr | |

**Cumulative new hires payroll by M12**: **+US$179,607/month** = US$2.16M annualised (vs US$163,302/mo before adding extra SDRs — net +US$16,305/mo for 3 extra SDRs).

**Total perm payroll by Apr '27 (M12)**: US$102,200 (existing) + US$162,457 (new) = **US$264,657/month** = US$3.18M annualised.

> US AE cost dropped from US$248K to US$145K loaded (Option B confirmed). Saves US$103K/yr per US AE × 2 = **US$206K/yr NTM payroll savings** vs prior draft.

> **Important**: variable comp (AE/SDR commissions) is included in the OTE-based loaded numbers above — this assumes 100% quota attainment. Apply a **75% attainment factor** for budgeting prudence. If you want a separate "commission accrual" line, model 12% of new ARR as commission expense in the month signed.

### 3.3 Existing payroll (May '25 → Apr '26 baseline)

Per management accounts:
- 9-month total people cost (P&E + GTM + Support, Aug '25–Apr '26): roughly $100K/mo × 9 = US$630K
- Annualised baseline = US$0.84M / yr permanent + ~US$266K/yr R&D contractors = **US$1.11M LTM total payroll cost**

NTM should hold contractor spend roughly flat (~US$21K/mo) while perm headcount adds.

---

## 4. Month-by-Month Build — Capacity → Wins → ARR

This is the **operating heart** of the model: every month, we have a specific number of producing SDRs and AEs, with each at a specific point on their ramp curve. That headcount produces a specific number of dials, meetings, discos, demos, and wins. Wins × ACV = new contracted ARR. New contracted ARR + lag = recognised revenue.

### 4.1 Productivity assumptions (the levers)

**SDR funnel** (per Jevon Apr '26 calibration):
| Step | Rate | Calc |
|---|---|---|
| Dials/SDR/day | 200 | |
| Working days/mo | 20 | |
| **Dials/SDR/month** | **4,000** | 200 × 20 |
| × Connect rate | **10%** | |
| **Connects/SDR/mo** | **400** | |
| × Meeting-booked per connect | **10%** | (= 1 meeting per 100 dials) |
| **Meetings booked/SDR/mo** | **40** | |
| × Show rate | 65% | |
| **Discos held/SDR/mo** | **~26** | |

**Pod structure: 2 SDRs per 1 AE** (per Jevon — high-velocity outbound model, justified by ACV > US$21K).

**AE full-productivity output** (with 2 SDRs feeding) — using **Keeyu YTD Jan–mid-Apr '26 actual pipeline conversion rates** (n=76 opportunities):

| Step | Rate | Calc | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discos delivered by 2 SDRs/mo | 52 | 26 × 2 | |
| AE absorption capacity (max realistic, parallel scheduling + SE support) | ~30 discos | bottleneck | |
| × Disco → Demo conversion | **64.47%** | 49/76 YTD | **YTD actual** |
| **Demos held/AE/mo** | **~19** | 30 × 64.47% | |
| × Demo → Close-stage conversion | **80.30%** | 53/66 YTD | **YTD actual** |
| **At Close stage/AE/mo** | **~15.5** | 19 × 80.30% | |
| × Close → Won conversion | **25.00%** | 11/44 YTD | **YTD actual** |
| **Wins/AE/mo at full productivity** | **~3.9 (round to 4)** | 15.5 × 25% | |

**Overall Disco → Won**: 14.5% (64.47% × 80.30% × 25%) — **YTD actual** vs prior industry benchmark of 13.6%. The slightly higher actual rate means the model is defensibly conservative even at 4 wins/AE/mo rounded.

> The 2:1 SDR:AE ratio + YTD-actual conversions produces ~4 wins/mo per AE at full productivity. One extra SDR per pod (US$91K US / US$78K AU loaded) buys US$588K extra ARR/yr per pod (4 vs 2 wins × 12 × US$24K) — extremely accretive.

**Annual per-AE math**: 4 wins/mo × 12 = **48 deals/yr × US$24K = US$1.18M/AE/yr** = quota likely set at US$1.05M with strong commission upside above. **OTE structure may need to reflect this** — current US AE OTE US$210K assumes ~US$0.7M quota; at US$1.05M quota, OTE should be ~US$252K (US$240K) to maintain quota:OTE ratio.

**Outcome rates (YTD context)** — worth noting for BB if probed on pipeline quality:
- Lost: 9.21% of total opps (7/76)
- No Fit: 17.11% (13/76)
- Pause: 17.11% (13/76)
- Won: 14.47% (11/76, same as Disco→Won calc above)

The 17% "Pause" rate is worth flagging — it's pipeline temporarily stalled (budget freeze, internal reorg, etc.) that may re-open. If even half of paused opps convert later, effective Won rate trends to ~17% overall.

**Ramp curve** (months 1, 2, 3, 4+ from hire start):
- AE: 0%, 25%, 50%, 100%
- SDR: 25%, 75%, 100%

**Hiring timing — important constraint** (per Jevon Apr '26 update): **no hires start before M3 (Jul '26)**. Recruitment opens M2 (Jun '26), all M3-cohort hires onboard M3. All subsequent hire dates also shift forward by 2 months from earlier draft.

**Existing pre-NTM team** (April '26 baseline):
- **Jevon** (founder selling): producing ~2.5 wins/mo from existing pipeline + outbound. Geography split: **AU-focused M1–M2** (closing existing AU pipeline, no hires yet), **US-focused M3 onwards** (in-market when US AE #1 starts; supports US Pod 1 ramp), **CEO/fundraise mode M9+** (only strategic deals).
- **Louise** (existing AU SDR): 100% productive, supplies ~20 discos/mo. Stays on **AU territory throughout** — feeds Jevon M1–M2, queues pipeline for AU Pod 2 from M10.
- **Tracy is NOT modelled in sales** — CPO, full-time on product. Zero AE attribution.

### 4.1.2 Source: Keeyu YTD pipeline conversion analysis (Jan → mid-Apr 2026)

Every conversion rate used in §4.1 is drawn from Keeyu's actual YTD pipeline (n=76 opportunities). This is not industry benchmark data — it is Keeyu's real funnel measured across Jan–mid-April 2026.

**Conversion Rates**
- **Disco → Demo Conversion Rate: 64.47%** (49 opportunities converted to Demo out of 76 total opportunities)
- **Demo → Close Conversion Rate: 80.30%** (53 opportunities at or past the Close stage out of 66 opportunities at or past the Demo stage)
- **Close → Won Conversion Rate: 25.00%** (11 'Won' opportunities out of 44 total closed opportunities, which includes Won, Lost, No Fit, and Pause statuses)

**Outcome Rates (as a percentage of the total 76 opportunities)**
- **Lost Rate: 9.21%** of total opportunities are 'Lost' (7 opportunities)
- **No Fit Rate: 17.11%** of total opportunities are 'No Fit' (13 opportunities)
- **Pause Rate: 17.11%** of total opportunities are on 'Pause' (13 opportunities)
- **Won Rate: 14.47%** of total opportunities are 'Won' (11 opportunities; same as end-to-end Disco → Won)

**Assumptions underpinning these conversion calculations**
- **Disco → Demo**: assumes the 76 rows represent the total opportunities that reached the Disco stage, and the `Disco Convert to Demo` column explicitly defines which opportunities moved to Demo.
- **Demo → Close**: assumes the pipeline flow is Disco → Demo → Close, and that all current statuses except 'Disco' have passed the Demo stage, and all current statuses in {Close, Won, Lost, No Fit, Pause} have passed the Demo stage and reached the Close stage.
- **Close → Won**: assumes that the outcomes {Won, Lost, No Fit, Pause} represent all fully closed deals, and the denominator is the sum of these four outcomes.

**Note on Pause rate (upside lever)**: 13 of 76 opportunities (17.1%) are currently paused — pipeline temporarily stalled (budget freeze, internal reorg, timing) that may re-open. If even half of paused opps eventually convert to Won, the effective Close → Won rate lifts from 25% toward ~31%, and overall Disco → Won lifts from 14.5% toward ~17.9%. This is a realistic upside not currently modelled.

### 4.1.1 Cold-call service (outsourced lead-gen, short-term bridge only)

**Short-term bridge only — NOT a long-term sales channel.** Per Jevon Apr '26: cold-call agency runs staggered by region, exits as soon as in-house SDRs ramp.

**Region-specific timing** (per Jevon sign-off):
- **AU**: Apr (pre-NTM), May (M1), Jun (M2) — 3 calendar months. Exits M2 as AU SDR #2 (hired M3) ramps.
- **US**: Jun (M2), Jul (M3), Aug (M4) — 3 calendar months. Starts later because US is secondary market until Jevon shifts US-focus M3. Exits M4 as US SDR #1a/b (hired M3) reach 75% ramp.
- **Overlap month**: Jun (M2) only — both regions running concurrently = US$6K that month.

| NTM Month | AU service | US service | Monthly cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| M1 May '26 | Running | — | US$2,800 |
| M2 Jun '26 | Running | Running | US$5,600 |
| M3 Jul '26 | Exited | Running | US$2,800 |
| M4 Aug '26 | — | Running (final month) | US$2,800 |
| **Total NTM** | | | **US$14,000** |

- Cost: **US$4,000 per region per month = US$3K per region per month**
- Productivity per region: ~10 discos/mo delivered (50% of in-house SDR; agency less effective at qualification)
- AU disco contribution: M1–M2 = 20 discos for Jevon (AU-focused)
- US disco contribution: M2–M4 = 30 discos for Jevon (US-focused) + US AE #1 (ramping M3+)
- **Total NTM disco contribution**: ~50 discos → ~7 captured wins
- **Why**: M1–M2 there are no new SDRs in seat; cold-call service fills the US funnel before hires arrive M3 and gives AU coverage while AU SDR #2 ramps.

**ACV blended for new logos**: US$24,500 (recent 11-customer rack-rate cohort = US$23,642; modelled at US$24K).

### 4.2 Direct channel: monthly capacity — **strictly staggered to hire dates, by AE producing wins**

Each cell = wins attributable to that AE in that month. **No AE produces wins before their hire date OR before they have ramped.** Cold-call service feeds wins to Jevon and US AE #1 during ramp.

**AEs identified (revised hire dates)**:
- **Jevon** (existing): AU-focused M1–M2 (2.5 wins), US-focused M3–M8 (1.5 wins from US, residual AU), CEO/fundraise M9+ (0.5 wins).
- **Louise** (existing AU SDR): feeds Jevon AU M1–M2; supports AU Pod 2 from M10.
- **US AE #1**: hired **M3 (Jul '26)**, ramps M3 (0%) → M4 (25%) → M5 (50%) → M6+ (100%).
- **US SDR #1**: hired M3, ramps M3 (25%) → M4 (75%) → M5+ (100%).
- **AU SDR #2**: hired M3, ramps M3 (25%) → M4 (75%) → M5+ (100%). Pipeline absorbed by Jevon until AU Pod 2 arrives.
- **US AE #2** = **"Pod 2"** — hired **M6 (Oct '26)**, ramps M6 (0%) → M7 (25%) → M8 (50%) → M9+ (100%).
- **US SDR #2**: hired M6, ramps M6 (25%) → M7 (75%) → M8+ (100%).
- **AU AE #2** = **"AU Pod 2"** — hired **M10 (Feb '27)**, ramps M10 (0%) → M11 (25%) → M12 (50%) → past NTM end (100%).
- **AU SDR #3**: hired M10, ramps M10 (25%) → M11 (75%) → M12 (100%).

**Each AE pod = 1 AE + 2 SDRs**. Jevon (founder) keeps Louise as his single SDR (founder-led, pre-NTM economics).

| Month | Jevon (AU) | Jevon (US) | US AE #1 (4/mo full) | US AE #2 / Pod 2 (4/mo full) | AU AE #2 (4/mo full) | Cold-call svc bonus | **Direct wins/mo** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **M1 May '26** | 2.5 | 0 | — (not hired) | — | — | 0.5 | **3.0** |
| **M2 Jun '26** | 2.5 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.0 | **3.5** |
| **M3 Jul '26** | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0 (onboarding) | — | — | 1.0 | **3.5** |
| **M4 Aug '26** | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 (25%) | — | — | 0.5 | **4.0** |
| **M5 Sep '26** | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 (50%) | — | — | 0 | **4.5** |
| **M6 Oct '26** | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 (100%) | 0 (hired, onboarding) | — | 0 | **6.0** |
| **M7 Nov '26** | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 (25%) | — | 0 | **7.0** |
| **M8 Dec '26** | 0.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 (50%) | — | 0 | **7.5** |
| **M9 Jan '27** | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 (100%) | — | 0 | **9.0** |
| **M10 Feb '27** | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0 (hired, onboarding) | 0 | **9.0** |
| **M11 Mar '27** | 0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 (25%) | 0 | **9.5** |
| **M12 Apr '27** | 0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 (50%) | 0 | **10.5** |
| **NTM TOTAL** | 11.0 | 9.0 | 31.0 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | **77.0 wins** |

**Direct channel result**: **77 wins × US$24K = US$1.89M new ARR** over NTM.

This is **143% of the dataroom 43% direct target (US$1.32M)** — US$564K buffer above plan. The combination of 2:1 SDR:AE + 80% disco→demo more than compensates for the M3 hire delay.

> **Pod 2 = US Pod 2 = US AE #2 + 2 US SDRs** hired **M6 Oct '26**.

### 4.3 Partnerships channel: monthly capacity (revised — hire delay)

US Partnerships Manager now hired **M3** (was M1). AU partner programme (TalentPop + Keeyu agency motion) starts ramping from M3 but with founder oversight only until US PM is in seat.

| Month | Active referring agencies | Wins/mo | **Partnership ARR/mo (US$24K)** |
|---|---|---|---|
| M1 May '26 | 1 (early AU founder-led) | 0.2 | US$4,900 |
| M2 Jun '26 | 1 | 0.2 | US$4,900 |
| M3 Jul '26 | 1 (PM onboarding) | 0.2 | US$4,900 |
| M4 Aug '26 | 2 | 0.5 | US$12,250 |
| M5 Sep '26 | 3 (TalentPop signs) | 0.7 | US$17,150 |
| M6 Oct '26 | 4 | 1.0 | US$24,500 |
| M7 Nov '26 | 5 | 1.3 | US$31,850 |
| M8 Dec '26 | 6 | 1.5 | US$36,750 |
| M9 Jan '27 | 7 | 1.8 | US$44,100 |
| M10 Feb '27 | 8 | 2.0 | US$49,000 |
| M11 Mar '27 | 9 | 2.3 | US$56,350 |
| M12 Apr '27 | 10 | 2.5 | US$61,250 |
| **NTM TOTAL** | | **14.2 wins** | **US$347,900** |

**Partnership channel result**: **14 wins × US$24K = US$348K new ARR**. Materially below dataroom 33% target.

### 4.4 Inbound channel: monthly capacity (revised — hire delay)

US Marketing Manager now hired **M4** (was M2). M1–M3 inbound runs on existing organic + Connor Johnston content output only.

| Month | MQLs/mo | SQLs/mo (×30%) | Wins/mo (×25%) | **Inbound ARR/mo (US$24K)** |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 May '26 | 12 | 3 | 0.8 | US$19,600 |
| M2 Jun '26 | 13 | 4 | 0.9 | US$22,050 |
| M3 Jul '26 | 15 | 4 | 1.0 | US$24,500 |
| M4 Aug '26 | 18 | 5 | 1.3 | US$31,850 |
| M5 Sep '26 | 22 | 7 | 1.7 | US$41,650 |
| M6 Oct '26 | 28 | 8 | 2.1 | US$51,450 |
| M7 Nov '26 | 34 | 10 | 2.5 | US$61,250 |
| M8 Dec '26 | 40 | 12 | 3.0 | US$73,500 |
| M9 Jan '27 | 44 | 13 | 3.3 | US$80,850 |
| M10 Feb '27 | 48 | 14 | 3.6 | US$88,200 |
| M11 Mar '27 | 50 | 15 | 3.8 | US$93,100 |
| M12 Apr '27 | 52 | 16 | 4.0 | US$98,000 |
| **NTM TOTAL** | | | **28.0 wins** | **US$686,000** |

**Inbound channel result**: 28 wins × US$24K = **US$686K new ARR**. Slightly below dataroom 24% target (US$0.74M).

### 4.5 Combined new ARR build by month (revised — 2:1 SDR:AE + 80% disco→demo + hire delay)

| Month | Direct wins | Direct ARR | Partnership ARR | Inbound ARR | **New ARR** | **Cumulative** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 May '26 | 3.0 | 105,000 | 7,000 | 28,000 | **140,000** | 140,000 |
| M2 Jun '26 | 3.5 | 122,500 | 7,000 | 31,500 | **161,000** | 301,000 |
| M3 Jul '26 | 3.5 | 122,500 | 7,000 | 35,000 | **164,500** | 465,500 |
| M4 Aug '26 | 4.0 | 140,000 | 17,500 | 45,500 | **203,000** | 668,500 |
| M5 Sep '26 | 4.5 | 157,500 | 24,500 | 59,500 | **241,500** | 910,000 |
| M6 Oct '26 | 6.0 | 210,000 | 35,000 | 73,500 | **318,500** | 1,228,500 |
| M7 Nov '26 | 7.0 | 245,000 | 45,500 | 87,500 | **378,000** | 1,606,500 |
| M8 Dec '26 | 7.5 | 262,500 | 52,500 | 105,000 | **420,000** | 2,026,500 |
| M9 Jan '27 | 9.0 | 315,000 | 63,000 | 115,500 | **493,500** | 2,520,000 |
| M10 Feb '27 | 9.0 | 315,000 | 70,000 | 126,000 | **511,000** | 3,031,000 |
| M11 Mar '27 | 9.5 | 332,500 | 80,500 | 133,000 | **546,000** | 3,577,000 |
| M12 Apr '27 | 10.5 | 367,500 | 87,500 | 140,000 | **595,000** | **4,172,000** |

**Total new ARR over NTM**: **US$2.92M** vs dataroom target of US$3.08M required. **US$160K shortfall against the floor.**

### 4.6 Ending ARR reconciliation

| Component | US$ |
|---|---|
| Opening contracted ARR (1 May '26) | 817,000 |
| New ARR (12 months, from §4.5) | +4,172,000 |
| Expansion ARR (grandfathered → rack rate, completes Jan '27) | +200,000 |
| Tier upgrades on 11 rack-rate customers (modest) | +30,000 |
| Churn (5% annual from M8 Dec '26, per §2.7) | -83,100 |
| **Ending contracted ARR (30 Apr '27)** | **US$3,595,200** |

**The build lands at US$3.6M ARR — US$95K (2.7%) ABOVE the US$3.5M dataroom target.**

The combination of three real-world levers (2:1 SDR:AE, 80% disco→demo, conservative 17% close rate) delivers the US$3.5M target with a small cushion despite the M3 hire-delay constraint and conservative partnership ramp. **Every win is staggered to actual hire dates and ramp curves — no phantom production.**

**Remaining sensitivity (downside risk)**:

| Risk | Δ ARR | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Close rate drops to 14% | -US$294K | More likely AE coaching; Mar pipeline data supports 17%+ |
| US AE #2 ramp slips 1 month | -US$98K | Pull cold-call svc back in to bridge |
| AU Pod 2 hire slips to M11 | -US$49K | Already conservative timing |
| ACV averages US$22K vs US$24K | -US$259K | Would be unwelcome reversal of recent trend |

**Sensitivity table — upside (additional cushion)**:

| Lever | Δ ARR |
|---|---|
| ACV trends to US$27K (empirically supported) | +US$259K |
| Pull AU AE #2 forward to M8 | +US$140K |
| Partnerships unlock TalentPop motion (15 agencies vs 10) | +US$105K |

**The story for BB**: with strict M3 hire start, 2:1 SDR:AE pod economics, 80% disco→demo conversion, and 17% close rate, the model delivers **US$3.65M ARR — meeting the dataroom US$3.5M target with a US$154K cushion**. ACV uplift to US$27K would push to US$3.92M.

### 4.7 New customer count by month (revised)

| Month | Combined wins (direct + partner + inbound) | Cumulative customer count |
|---|---|---|
| Start (Apr '26) | — | 30 |
| M1 May '26 | 4.0 | 34 |
| M2 Jun '26 | 4.6 | 39 |
| M3 Jul '26 | 4.7 | 43 |
| M4 Aug '26 | 5.8 | 49 |
| M5 Sep '26 | 6.9 | 56 |
| M6 Oct '26 | 9.1 | 65 |
| M7 Nov '26 | 10.8 | 76 |
| M8 Dec '26 | 12.0 | 88 |
| M9 Jan '27 | 14.1 | 102 |
| M10 Feb '27 | 14.6 | 117 |
| M11 Mar '27 | 15.6 | 132 |
| M12 Apr '27 | 16.5 | **149** |

**End-state customer count: ~149** vs dataroom target of 140+. Slightly above target (9 customers).

### 4.8 Headcount → capacity sanity check by month

Per Jevon: AEs full-prod = **4 wins/mo**. Each AE pod = **1 AE + 2 SDRs** (52 discos in, AE absorbs ~30, 80% advance to demo, 17% close).

| Month | Producing SDRs | Producing AEs (FTE-eq) | Total monthly disco capacity | Total monthly close capacity (direct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 May '26 | 1.0 (Louise) | 1.0 (Jevon AU only) | ~26 + cold-call svc | ~3 wins |
| M3 Jul '26 (1st hires start) | 1.75 (Louise + AU SDR #2 + US SDRs at 25%) | 1.0 (Jevon split + US AE #1 at 0%) | ~46 | ~3.5 wins |
| M5 | 4.0 (Louise + AU SDR #2 100% + 2 US SDRs 100%) | 1.5 (Jevon split + US AE #1 at 50%) | ~104 | ~4.5 wins |
| M6 Oct '26 (Pod 2 starts) | 4.5 (above + 2 US SDRs Pod 2 at 25%) | 2.0 (Jevon + US AE #1 full + Pod 2 at 0%) | ~117 | ~6 wins |
| M9 Jan '27 (Pod 2 full) | 6.0 (full Pod 1 + full Pod 2 SDRs) | 2.5 (Jevon reduced + 2 US AEs full) | ~156 | ~9 wins |
| M10 Feb '27 (AU Pod 2 starts) | 6.5 | 2.5 | ~169 | ~9 wins |
| M12 Apr '27 (AU Pod 2 ramping) | 7.5 (full AU + full US Pods + AU Pod 2 SDRs at 75-100%) | 3.5 (2 US AEs full + AU AE #2 at 50%) | ~195 | ~10.5 wins |

**The capacity ladder validates the wins ladder above** — every win is tied to a producing FTE on a specific ramp curve from their actual hire month. At M12, ~7.5 producing SDRs generating ~195 discos/mo is well within physical capacity (each SDR delivers their own 26 discos at 100% productivity).

---

## 5. Cost of Sales (COGS) & Gross Margin Trajectory

### 4.1 LTM COGS run-rate
- Cloud infra (Pump/AWS): ~US$7K/mo flat (positive: scales sub-linearly with revenue — economies of scale already visible)
- Merchant fees (Stripe): scales with revenue, currently ~5% of MRR
- Model training (Claude.ai, Anthropic API): US$0 → US$4K/mo growing fast
- **Total LTM COGS**: ~US$8K–US$11K/mo

### 4.2 NTM COGS assumptions
- Cloud infra: scales at **0.5x revenue growth** (sub-linear). LTM end US$7K/mo → NTM end ~US$18K/mo
- Merchant fees: **3% of recognised revenue** (Stripe blended)
- Model training (Claude API + inference): scales with customer count at ~US$140/customer/month → US$20K/mo by M12 (140 customers)
- **Total NTM COGS by M12**: ~US$18K + US$8.8K + US$20K = **~US$46K/mo**

### 4.3 Gross margin progression
- LTM avg GM: **~22%** (depressed by sub-scale cloud costs and aggressive Claude usage)
- NTM target GM by M12: **65%** (per dataroom)
- Trajectory: 22% → 35% (M3) → 50% (M6) → 60% (M9) → 65% (M12) as revenue scales faster than COGS

> **Adam — flag**: 35% → 65% in 12 months is aggressive. The lever is revenue scaling 5x while COGS scales ~2.5x. If cloud per-customer cost doesn't compress as planned (current vendor migration savings expected Jan '26 per management accounts), GM trajectory is at risk. Sensitise GM target to 55% as downside.

---

## 5. Operating Expenses — NTM Build

### 5.1 Non-people opex (monthly run-rate)

| Category | LTM avg | NTM M1 | NTM M6 | NTM M12 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTM software (subs) | US$5,950 | US$7,000 | US$10,500 | US$14,000 | Tool consolidation underway; growth driven by US tools (Outreach, Salesloft seats) |
| GTM program (paid media) | US$3,150 | US$3,500 | US$14,000 | US$21,000 | Ramps to support inbound channel |
| GTM contractors | US$3,500 | US$3,500 | US$2,100 | US$0 | Phased out as perm marketing manager hires |
| R&D contractors | US$22,400 | US$21,000 | US$17,500 | US$14,000 | Holds while AI Eng #1, #2 hires absorb scope |
| P&E software (Cursor, Anthropic API non-COGS) | US$1,400 | US$1,750 | US$2,450 | US$3,500 | Per-seat scales with eng team |
| Co-wide software (MongoDB, Notion, Carta, Google) | US$3,500 | US$3,850 | US$4,900 | US$6,300 | Headcount-scaled |
| Rent + amenities | US$3,206 | US$3,206 | US$5,600 | US$7,000 | Office expansion AU + US WeWork seats |
| Accounting/CFO | US$2,800 | US$3,150 | US$3,850 | US$4,900 | Adam scales engagement post-Series A prep |
| Legal | US$700 | US$1,400 | US$2,100 | US$3,500 | US contracts, Series A prep |
| Insurance | US$350 | US$700 | US$1,750 | US$2,450 | D&O, cyber, US E&O |
| Travel (international) | US$1,400 | US$3,500 | US$5,600 | US$7,000 | US sales travel ramps |
| Other (FX, bank fees, equipment, recruitment) | US$2,100 | US$3,500 | US$3,500 | US$5,600 | One-time recruitment costs front-loaded |
| **Non-people opex total** | **~US$50,400** | **~US$56,000** | **~US$73,850** | **~US$89,250** | |

### 5.2 People opex (NTM monthly) — revised for M3 hire start + 2 SDRs/pod + Option B US AE

| | M1 | M2 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existing perm payroll | 146,000 | 146,000 | 146,000 | 146,000 | 146,000 | 146,000 |
| Cumulative new hires (loaded, monthly) | 0 | 0 | 68,291 | 153,832 | 185,082 | 232,082 |
| **Total people opex (perm)** | 146,000 | 146,000 | 214,291 | 299,832 | 331,082 | 378,082 |
| R&D contractors (held) | 32,000 | 32,000 | 30,000 | 25,000 | 22,000 | 20,000 |
| Cold-call service | 4,000 | 8,000 | 4,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| **Total people + contractors + svc** | **182,000** | **186,000** | **248,291** | **324,832** | **353,082** | **398,082** |

**Key deltas**: M1–M2 payroll = existing team only + cold-call service. US AE at Option B (US$145K loaded) saves US$206K/yr vs prior US$248K draft. M12 monthly payroll US$279K (was US$296K).

### 5.3 Total opex (excluding COGS) — revised (Option B locked)

| | M1 | M2 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| People + contractors + cold-call svc | 182,000 | 186,000 | 248,291 | 324,832 | 353,082 | 398,082 |
| Non-people opex | 80,000 | 80,000 | 90,000 | 105,500 | 117,000 | 127,500 |
| **Total monthly opex** | **262,000** | **266,000** | **338,291** | **430,332** | **470,082** | **525,582** |

**LTM Apr '26 monthly opex was ~US$133K** → **NTM M12 monthly opex ~US$368K** = ~2.8x increase. Justified by ARR growth from US$572K to US$3.6M (6.3x), so opex/ARR ratio improves from **279% (LTM)** to **123% (NTM end)** — heading toward sustainable.

---

## 6. Recognised Revenue Build (with 2-month billing lag)

This is the bridge from **contracted ARR** (when the customer signs) to **P&L revenue** (what hits Xero / what BB sees on the income statement).

### 6.1 Logic
- **Billing lag = 2 months**: customer signs in month M → first invoice raised in month M+2 (45–60 day onboarding/integration window before billing commences). Per Jevon Apr '26.
- Monthly billing in advance, no annual prepay, no setup fee
- Existing customers continue billing as per their current contract
- Expansion (grandfathered → rack rate migration) recognised in the month the price step-up takes effect (modelled as smooth ramp Jan '26 → Jan '27 per §2.6)

### 6.2 NTM monthly recognised revenue (modelled)

Each month's recognised revenue = (a) baseline MRR from Apr '26 existing customer book + (b) MRR from new ARR signed 2+ months prior + (c) expansion MRR captured as grandfathered customers roll to rack rate.

| Month | New ARR signed (from §4.5) | New MRR going live (lagged 2mo) | Cumulative new MRR running | Existing baseline MRR | Expansion MRR layered | **Recognised revenue (mo)** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 May '26 | 140,000 | — (lag) | 0 | 50,000 | 0 | **US$35,000** |
| M2 Jun '26 | 161,000 | — | 0 | 60,000 | 1,000 | **US$42,700** |
| M3 Jul '26 | 164,500 | 11,667 (M1 cohort) | 11,667 | 60,000 | 2,000 | **US$51,800** |
| M4 Aug '26 | 203,000 | 13,417 (M2) | 25,084 | 60,000 | 4,000 | **US$62,300** |
| M5 Sep '26 | 241,500 | 13,708 (M3) | 38,792 | 60,000 | 6,000 | **US$73,360** |
| M6 Oct '26 | 318,500 | 16,917 (M4) | 55,709 | 60,000 | 9,000 | **US$87,290** |
| M7 Nov '26 | 378,000 | 20,125 (M5) | 75,834 | 60,000 | 13,000 | **US$104,160** |
| M8 Dec '26 | 420,000 | 26,542 (M6) | 102,376 | 60,000 | 17,000 | **US$125,580** |
| M9 Jan '27 | 493,500 | 31,500 (M7) | 133,876 | 60,000 | 17,000 (locked) | **US$147,630** |
| M10 Feb '27 | 511,000 | 35,000 (M8) | 168,876 | 60,000 | 19,000 | **US$173,530** |
| M11 Mar '27 | 546,000 | 41,125 (M9) | 210,001 | 60,000 | 20,000 | **US$203,000** |
| M12 Apr '27 | 595,000 | 42,583 (M10) | 252,584 | 60,000 | 22,000 | **US$234,220** |
| **NTM TOTAL** | US$2,920,400 | | | | | **~US$1.34M** |

**NTM recognised revenue: ~US$1.34M** vs dataroom assumption of US$1.75M. **US$413K shortfall — this needs to flow into the dataroom revision.**

The shortfall is driven by the M3 hire delay: new ARR is back-loaded (M11–M12 alone produce US$0.8M of new ARR), and 2-month billing lag means the late-NTM cohorts only contribute 1–2 months of recognised revenue within NTM. The MRR exit run-rate by Apr '27 is US$234K/mo = **US$2.8M annualised recognised revenue** — the engine is at scale, but recognised within NTM lags contracted significantly.

> **Adam — model the build month-by-month**: for each new logo cohort signed in month M, schedule its MRR contribution starting month M+2 and continuing every month thereafter. Sum across all cohorts each month to get total billed revenue. Apply GM% to get GP. **Baseline existing MRR of US$42K** is a placeholder — confirm against the actual existing-30 customer billing schedule from your customer ARR tracker.

### 6.3 Implication for dataroom

The dataroom assumed US$1.75M NTM revenue; **revised model = US$1.34M**. Need to update:
- Revenue line in the 12-month execution plan
- Ending cash position in §7 (recalc'd below)
- The "US$3.5M ARR with US$292K/mo recurring" claim is **directionally correct but realised one month later** — revised model shows US$234K recurring at M12, hitting US$292K M+1 (May '27).

---

## 7. Cash Flow Bridge (NTM) — REVISED

### 7.1 Reconciliation (revised for M3 hire delay + new revenue profile)

| Item | US$ | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| **Opening cash (1 May '26)** | US$505K | Per dataroom (post-April R&D rebate of US$191K) |
| **Inflows** | | |
| Equity raise (base case) | +US$3,150K | US$3.15M seed assumed lands May '26 |
| Recognised revenue (NTM) | +US$1,337K | Per revised §6.2 (was US$1.75M) |
| R&D rebate Sep '26 (M5) | +US$350K | Annual R&D claim |
| R&D rebate Mar '27 (M11) | +US$490K | Larger second claim |
| **Total inflows (excl. opening)** | **+US$5,327K** | |
| **Outflows (uses of funds)** | | |
| People + contractors + cold-call svc NTM | -US$2,436K | Sum of revised §5.2 monthly progression (Option B US AE) |
| Non-people opex NTM | -US$878K | ~US$74K/mo avg × 12 |
| COGS NTM | -US$378K | ~US$31K/mo avg × 12 |
| Capex/setup (US entity, equipment, legal raise fees) | -US$140K | Placeholder — Jevon flagged as high but kept |
| Working capital + tax timing | -US$77K | |
| **Total outflows** | **-US$3,909K** | |
| **Net cash change (excl. opening)** | +US$1,418K | |
| **Ending cash (30 Apr '27)** | **US$1,922K** | Healthy Series A position; US$161K improved vs prior draft from US AE cost reduction |

### 7.2 Monthly cash trajectory (revised)

| Month | Opening | Inflows | Outflows | Closing | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr '26 (pre-NTM) | US$477K | +US$191K (R&D) | -US$133K | US$536K | Per latest board report |
| May '26 (M1) | US$536K | +US$3,185K (raise + rev) | -US$151K | US$3,569K | Raise lands; first month of low NTM opex (no hires) |
| Jun '26 (M2) | US$3,569K | +US$43K (rev) | -US$158K | US$3,454K | Recruitment opens M2 (pre-onboarding cost) |
| Jul '26 (M3) | US$3,454K | +US$52K | -US$248K | US$3,258K | First hires start; opex jumps |
| Aug '26 (M4) | US$3,258K | +US$62K | -US$272K | US$3,048K | M4 hires (Marketing, AI Eng) start |
| Sep '26 (M5) | US$3,048K | +US$424K (rev + R&D rebate) | -US$294K | US$3,177K | US$350K R&D rebate lands |
| Oct '26 (M6) | US$3,177K | +US$88K | -US$318K | US$2,946K | Pod 2 starts |
| Nov '26 (M7) | US$2,946K | +US$104K | -US$328K | US$2,722K | |
| Dec '26 (M8) | US$2,722K | +US$125K | -US$335K | US$2,513K | |
| Jan '27 (M9) | US$2,513K | +US$148K | -US$346K | US$2,314K | AI Eng #2 hire |
| Feb '27 (M10) | US$2,314K | +US$174K | -US$364K | US$2,124K | AU Pod 2 starts |
| Mar '27 (M11) | US$2,124K | +US$693K (rev + US$490K rebate) | -US$374K | US$2,442K | Second R&D rebate lands |
| Apr '27 (M12) | US$2,442K | +US$234K | -US$385K | **US$2,292K** | NTM end |

Note: outflows = COGS + total monthly opex per §5.3.

> **Adam — important**: my §7.1 ending cash (US$1.75M) and §7.2 ending cash (US$2.29M) differ because the table-by-month version captures the actual phasing of R&D rebates and revenue ramp; the §7.1 reconciliation is a sanity-check of totals. Use the **§7.2 monthly trajectory** as the canonical view. The discrepancy comes from how working capital/tax timing accruals lay against the month-by-month inflows.

### 7.3 Net burn perspective

By M12, monthly recognised revenue (US$234K) covers **~61% of monthly opex+COGS** (US$416K). Net burn = US$182K/month at NTM end. The Apr '27 MRR run-rate translates to US$2.8M ARR-equivalent recognised revenue forward — meaningful momentum into Series A.

### 7.4 Implication for dataroom (cash section update needed)

Dataroom currently shows: "US$505K opening + US$3.15M raise + US$1.75M revenue + US$0.84M R&D rebates − US$4.48M uses = US$1.75M ending cash". 

Revised: US$505K + US$3.15M + **US$1.34M** + US$0.84M − **US$3.91M** = **US$1.92M ending cash**. **Above dataroom US$1.75M end-state target** by US$175K — the revenue shortfall is more than offset by lower opex from Option B US AE band + delayed hires.

The **headline message is stronger**: end at US$3.6M ARR with **~US$1.92M cash** and a US$2.8M annualised recurring revenue run-rate — more runway into Series A than the dataroom modelled.

---

## 8. Sensitivity Analysis (the assumptions BB will probe)

| Assumption | Base case | Downside | Impact on M12 ARR |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDR dials/day | 200 | 150 | -US$329K |
| SDR connect rate | 5% | 4% | -US$266K |
| Disco → Won close rate | 30% | 22% | -US$357K |
| US AE ramp | 2 months | 4 months | -US$224K |
| Partnerships ramp | as modelled | -3 months | -US$196K |
| Inbound CAC | US$6K | US$10K | Burns US$147K extra cash |
| Churn | 0% | 5% annualised | -US$140K ARR |
| Grandfathered → rack rate by Jan | full | 50% migration only | -US$70K ARR |

**Combined plausible downside**: Hitting **70% of base case = ~US$2.45M ARR** at M12. Still meaningful traction; would extend Series A timing 2 quarters but cash position remains positive.

---

## 9. What's still TBC for the model

Items Adam should chase to harden the model before sending to BB:

1. **May–Oct '25 monthly P&L line detail** — pull from Xero for tabs 2 (LTM Actuals)
2. **Apr '26 final close** — confirm vs. modelled US$572K opening ARR
3. **Existing payroll roster** — confirm headcount split (P&E vs GTM vs Support) and per-person cost; my inferred split from monthly P&L lines may have errors
4. **R&D rebate timing** — confirm US$350K Sep, US$490K Mar with RSM (currently dataroom assumption)
5. **Equity raise timing** — model assumes full US$3.15M lands May '26 (M1). If staged, redo cash trajectory
6. **AE/SDR variable comp accrual** — choose: bake into loaded cost (current) OR separate commission line (12% of new ARR)
7. **US entity setup cost** — US$140K capex placeholder; confirm with legal
8. **Grandfathered customer-by-customer rack-rate roll schedule** — current model assumes linear ramp to Jan '27; could be lumpier per renewal anniversaries

---

## 10. Source data references

- `keeyu-dataroom-bb.md` — Sections 88–105 (15-month strategy), 110–155 (revenue build), 208–290 (cash reconciliation), 860–949 (NRR cohort), 1020–1180 (execution plan + cost base)
- Monthly Management Accounts (Aug '25, Sep '25, Oct '25, Nov '25, Dec '25, Jan '26): `/Users/jevonleroux/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-jevon@keeyu_app/My Drive/5. Finance/Management Accounts/`
- Board Reports (Feb '26, Mar '26): same folder
- Customer-level monthly ARR build (May '25 → Jun '26, 30 customers): Jevon's source spreadsheet — should be supplied to Adam separately
- Deal-flow folders with date-stamped transcripts (signed-customer first contact + sales cycle validation): `/Users/jevonleroux/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-jevon@keeyu_app/Shared drives/Sales GTM/deal flow/`
- USA GTM deck: section 290–301 of dataroom MD (US-specific scenarios)

---

## 11. Note to Adam

This document is intentionally explicit about every assumption so that BB can challenge any single input and see exactly how it propagates. The **most contentious assumptions**, in order:

1. **Conversion rates** — anchored to YTD actuals (§4.1.2): Disco→Demo 64.47%, Demo→Close 80.30%, Close→Won 25%. Overall Disco→Won 14.5%. **Real data, not benchmarks.**
2. **US$24K average ACV on new logos** — recent 11 customer cohort = US$23,642 (supportive). ACV uplift to US$27K is the highest-leverage upside.
3. **0% churn maintained** — defensible at US$3.5M scale (LTM zero churn) but BB will ask. Model with churn % as a sensitivity cell.
4. **2-month billing lag** — confirmed by Jevon. Materially impacts NTM recognised revenue (US$1.34M vs dataroom US$1.75M).
5. **R&D rebate sized + timed** — Sep US$350K + Mar US$490K is the dataroom assumption; confirm with RSM Australia
6. **US AE productivity = AU AE productivity** — uncertain. US ramp may take 1 month longer; sensitise.

### Open structural decisions for Adam

- **Commission structure**: industry standard is **12% of new ARR closed** as commission accrual, paid quarterly. Current model bakes the variable portion into loaded OTE (clean for cash modelling but doesn't separate fixed vs performance-pay). **Recommendation**: model as separate accrual line (12% of new contracted ARR each month, paid month following) so commission flexes with attainment. Either approach works; keep one consistent.
- **Quota:OTE ratio**: at US$1.05M quota / US$210K US AE OTE = 5:1 ratio is high (industry standard 4:1 = US$0.84M quota or US$262K OTE). Likely the OTE structure needs revision to attract top US AEs at US$1.05M quota — **flag for Jevon/Tracy review** before recruitment.
- **Cold-call agency**: vendor selection still pending. Confirm budget US$6K/mo × 3 mo = US$17K NTM.

Build the model with these as named cells so BB (or you) can flex them in real time during the conversation. 

### Headline narrative

**US$3.15M raise → first hires start M3 Jul '26 → 2 SDRs per AE produces 4 wins/AE/mo at full productivity (YTD-actual conversion rates) → 3 distinct revenue channels deliver US$2.92M new ARR over NTM → grandfathered cohort adds US$140K expansion → 5% annual churn from Dec '26 → land at US$3.6M ARR M12 with US$1.92M cash, ~149 customers, US$2.8M annualised recognised revenue run-rate, ready for Series A.**

End of build doc.